For Securities Attorneys & Investor Advocacy Counsel

The Standard of Care Is Now Testable.
The Evidence Is Documented.

The SEC's 2022–2023 Staff Bulletins establish specific, operational obligations that most advisory practices do not satisfy. This 105-page evidentiary report provides the analytical framework, the documented case studies, and the regulatory citations that connect a fiduciary's failure to measure risk with the client's resulting loss — using the Commission's own published language.

3 SEC Staff Bulletins establishing the standard
8 case studies of predictable losses
10 tests fiduciaries should apply to every holding

The Evidentiary Foundation

The SEC Has Published the Standard. The Industry Has Not Met It. The Losses Are Documented.

Between March 2022 and April 2023, the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets published three Staff Bulletins that collectively articulate the most specific operational guidance the Commission has issued on the care obligations of broker-dealers and investment advisers. The report analyzes each Bulletin in detail and identifies four core obligations they establish:

Understand potential losses before recommending.

The April 2023 Care Obligations Bulletin requires understanding "the expected returns, expected payout rates, and potential losses" and "likely performance in a variety of market and economic conditions." An advisor who recommends a security at historically extreme valuations without analyzing the probability and magnitude of loss under reversion scenarios has not satisfied this standard as the SEC has defined it.

Consider reasonably available alternatives.

Both the March 2022 and April 2023 Bulletins require consideration of alternatives — and the Commission has pursued enforcement actions against advisors who recommended higher-cost products when lower-cost alternatives were available. For a client whose primary objectives are income and capital preservation, the alternatives include Treasury securities, FDIC-insured deposits, and fixed annuities — products where catastrophic loss is not possible.

Monitor holdings continuously.

The 2023 Bulletin states that "reasonable investigation will require continued analysis after purchase." Release IA-5248 (2019) independently establishes the same continuous duty. An advisor who has no predefined quantitative thresholds triggering review has no mechanism to fulfill this obligation.

Address conflicts of interest beyond disclosure.

The August 2022 Conflicts Bulletin states that conflict management "should not be merely a 'check-the-box' exercise." The Bulletin further establishes that "it would be difficult for an investment adviser to demonstrate how it complies with its fiduciary obligations in the absence of records related to how the adviser addresses its conflicts." The absence of documentation is itself evidence of non-compliance.

The Documentation Principle

The SEC's 2022 Conflicts Bulletin establishes a principle with direct implications for any proceeding: the absence of records is not a neutral fact — it is evidence that the analysis was not performed. An advisor's file that contains only a risk tolerance questionnaire and a brokerage statement does not demonstrate compliance with the standards articulated in these Bulletins. In the SEC's own language, it demonstrates the opposite.

Part I of the report provides the full analysis of all three SEC Bulletins, with extended quotation and citation for each obligation identified.

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Lines of Inquiry

Questions the Report Equips You to Ask

The analytical framework and evidentiary record in the report support a series of specific, documented questions that go directly to whether the standard of care was met. The following are illustrative — not exhaustive — and each is developed in full within the report with supporting citations and case evidence.

On Understanding Potential Losses
"Before you recommended this security, did you calculate the probability and expected magnitude of loss if the valuation multiple reverted to its historical median — and did you disclose that analysis to the client?"

The 2023 Care Obligations Bulletin requires understanding "potential losses" and "likely performance in a variety of market and economic conditions." The report provides a methodology — the "What Must Happen" framework — for determining what specific conditions were required for the investment to succeed, and what the loss would be if those conditions were not met. If the advisor performed no such analysis, the care obligation was not satisfied under the SEC's own published standard.

On Reasonably Available Alternatives
"Did you compare the expected risk-adjusted return of this equity recommendation to the guaranteed return of a Treasury security or FDIC-insured deposit — and can you produce documentation of that comparison?"

For a client whose primary objectives were income and capital preservation, Treasury securities yielding 4–5% with no principal risk represent a "reasonably available alternative" that the SEC's Bulletins require the advisor to consider. If no such comparison was documented, the advisor's recommendation was made without the analysis the Commission requires.

On Continuous Monitoring
"What written monitoring process did you apply to this holding after purchase — what predefined quantitative thresholds would have triggered a review — and can you produce the records of that monitoring?"

The SEC's continuous monitoring duty requires "continued analysis after purchase." If the advisor had no predefined criteria for evaluating changes in the company's financial condition — no threshold for declining free cash flow, deteriorating balance sheet health, or valuation divergence — there was no mechanism to fulfill the monitoring obligation. The report documents that most advisors rely on sell-side research whose economic incentives are structurally incapable of producing timely sell signals.

On Conflicts of Interest
"Your compensation is a percentage of assets under management. Moving this client to Treasury securities would have reduced your fee income. Can you produce documentation of how you addressed that conflict when you recommended maintaining equity exposure?"

The 2022 Conflicts Bulletin acknowledges the AUM fee conflict as universal, states that disclosure alone does not resolve it, and establishes that the absence of records is itself evidence of non-compliance. If the advisor's file contains no documentation addressing this conflict beyond the disclosure in the ADV, the SEC's own language says compliance cannot be demonstrated.

On Delegation to Non-Fiduciary Sources
"Did you rely on sell-side research from a brokerage firm to support this recommendation — and were you aware that broker-dealer analysts are not fiduciaries and owe no duty of care to your clients?"

The 2023 Care Obligations Bulletin states that financial professionals "remain responsible for personally understanding an investment" before recommending it. The report documents the structural conflicts in sell-side research — the economic dependence on investment banking relationships that produces a systematic bias against sell recommendations — and establishes that reliance on such research does not satisfy the fiduciary's independent duty of analysis.

On Base-Rate Evidence
"The growth rate implied by this security's price at the time of your recommendation has been achieved by fewer than 1 in 10 comparable companies in the historical record. Were you aware of that base rate — and did you disclose it to the client?"

The report presents base-rate data compiled by Michael Mauboussin at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley showing that for companies above $6 billion in revenue, fewer than 1 in 11 sustained 15% annual growth over five years. For companies above $100 billion, no company in history has sustained mid-teens growth for a decade. An advisor who accepted a growth projection that defied these documented base rates without disclosing the statistical improbability was not exercising professional judgment — the advisor was making a statistical error with the client's capital.

The full analytical framework — including the "What Must Happen" protocol, the 10 fiduciary tests, and the Net Liquid Equity criterion — is detailed across Parts VIII through X of the report.

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The Evidentiary Record

Eight Companies Where the Loss Was Predictable, the Risk Was Measurable, and the Advisor Was Not Required to Measure It

The report documents eight companies — spanning technology, pharmaceuticals, retail, and fintech over three decades — where extraordinary business growth produced zero or negative stock returns. In every case, the cause was the same measurable condition: the valuation at the time of purchase was too extreme to sustain.

Company Period Revenue Growth Stock Return Valuation Compression
IBM 1967–1993 +2,800% Negative real return (25 yrs) ~60x → ~10x P/E
Microsoft 1999–2016 +310% −1% 30.9x → 5.4x P/S
NVIDIA 2002–2015 +339% +5% total 9.5x → 2.3x P/S
Amazon 1999–2010 +3,413% +4% total 35.9x → 1.7x P/S
Pfizer 1999–2011 +415% −65% 12.6x → 1.9x P/S
Tesla 2014–2019 +1,022% −26% 15.4x → 1.5x P/S
Walmart 1999–2017 +214% −1% 2.0x → 0.4x P/S
PayPal 2021–2026 +39% −87% 15.1x → 1.1x P/S

The evidentiary significance of these cases is that none involved fraud, accounting irregularities, or business failure. In every instance, the underlying company continued to grow revenue throughout the period of investor loss. The losses were caused entirely by a condition that was quantifiable before the investment was made: the price paid relative to the company's underlying financial reality exceeded the level that historical patterns show can be sustained.

The Microsoft Case Study

The report applies the same framework to the same company at three dates — December 1999, November 2011, and October 2025 — and demonstrates that the framework identified catastrophic risk at dates one and three, and exceptional opportunity at date two, using only publicly available data. Sensitivity tables for all three dates are reproduced in Appendix B.

Structural Context

Why the Advisor Failed — and Why That Failure Was Foreseeable

Establishing that the standard of care was not met is necessary but not sufficient. A complete evidentiary picture also requires understanding why the advisory process failed — what structural conditions made the failure predictable rather than idiosyncratic. The report documents three systemic factors:

The sell-side information conflict.

The research that most advisors rely on for buy and sell decisions is produced by brokerage firms whose primary revenue comes from investment banking relationships with the companies their analysts cover. The economic incentive is to recommend buying, not selling. The report documents that the sell signal advisors need most is the one the system is structurally designed never to deliver — and that advisors who rely exclusively on this source for monitoring have delegated their fiduciary duty to an entity with no fiduciary obligation.

The AUM fee conflict.

The standard advisory fee — a percentage of assets under management — creates a direct financial incentive to keep clients invested in equities at all times. An advisor who moves client assets to lower-risk positions to protect against a foreseeable decline reduces their own income. The SEC's 2022 Conflicts Bulletin acknowledges this conflict as universal. The report documents that the industry has not addressed it in any substantive way.

The examination gap.

The SEC Division of Examinations reported examining approximately 15% of the registered investment adviser population in fiscal year 2022. The remaining 85% operate with no mechanism to verify that the obligations articulated in the Commission's Bulletins are being fulfilled. The combination of a detailed standard and minimal enforcement creates an environment in which the monitoring duty exists in theory but is rarely fulfilled in practice — and in which the absence of examination records may itself be relevant to the question of whether oversight was adequate.

Authorities Cited in the Report

The Regulatory, Legal, and Empirical Sources Underlying the Framework

The report's analytical framework draws on regulatory guidance, legal scholarship, and peer-reviewed empirical research. The principal sources include:

SEC
2022–2023 Staff Bulletin Series

Three Bulletins on Account Recommendations (March 2022), Conflicts of Interest (August 2022), and Care Obligations (April 2023). Analyzed in full in Part I.

SEC
Release IA-5248 (2019)

The Commission's interpretation of the fiduciary duty under the Investment Advisers Act, establishing the "reasonable basis" standard and the duty to seek disconfirming evidence.

Legal
De Geest, "The Death of Caveat Emptor" (2014)

Presented at the University of Chicago Law School. Establishes the Least Cost Information Gatherer principle as the governing framework for disclosure duties in asymmetric-information relationships. Analyzed in Part I, §1.3.

Legal
Restatement (Third) of Trusts — Prudent Investor Rule

Mandates the exercise of "reasonable care, skill, and caution." Discussed in Part I, §1.4 and Part II, §2.6.

Empirical
Mauboussin et al., "The Base Rate Book" (Credit Suisse, 2016)

Comprehensive base-rate data on corporate growth persistence by revenue cohort, 1950–2023. Establishes the statistical improbability of sustained high growth from large revenue bases. Analyzed in Part IX, §§9.1–9.2.

Empirical
Chan, Karceski & Lakonishok, "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates" (Journal of Finance, 2003)

Peer-reviewed finding that "there is no persistence in long-term earnings growth beyond chance" and that analyst growth forecasts "are overly optimistic and add little predictive power." Cited in Part IX, §9.2.

Empirical
Brunnermeier & Nagel, "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble" (Journal of Finance, 2004)

Documents that sophisticated investors participated in the run-up and reduced exposure later — capturing upside while retail investors and fiduciaries bore the greatest losses. Cited in Appendix A.

The full report includes complete citations for all authorities, SEC filings, and empirical sources referenced, together with the ERS analytical platform output for the Microsoft case study at all three dates.

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For Attorneys Representing Harmed Investors

The Gap Between Articulated Standards and Actual Practice Is Now Documented

The traditional difficulty in investment loss cases has been establishing what the advisor should have known and what they should have done differently. The combination of the SEC's 2022–2023 Bulletins and the evidentiary record in this report substantially changes that landscape.

The SEC has now published, in its own guidance, what the advisor was required to do: understand potential losses, consider alternatives, monitor continuously, and address conflicts beyond disclosure. The report documents, with quantitative evidence, that these obligations are routinely unfulfilled — and that the resulting losses were foreseeable using publicly available data and standard analytical methods.

The question in any proceeding is no longer "what should a reasonable advisor have done?" in the abstract. The question is: "did this advisor do what the SEC said they must do — and if not, were the resulting losses the kind of losses the SEC's standard was designed to prevent?" The Bulletins provide the standard. The report provides the evidence. The client's account statement provides the damages.

We are available to the legal community to discuss the analytical framework, present the evidence, and provide context on the regulatory standards and evidentiary record documented in the report. Additional resources are available at InvestingForLawyers.com.

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Quantifying the Standard of Care — a 105-page evidentiary document with SEC Bulletin analysis, eight documented case studies, the "What Must Happen" analytical framework, and complete source citations.